Climate of Our Future

From: Climate Crisis Coalition

A Perilous Future for New Orleans
By Joel K. Bourne, Jr., The National Geographic, August 2007 issues
“Hurricane Katrina, the costliest natural disaster in United States history, was also a warning shot. Right after the tragedy, many people expressed a defiant resolve to rebuild the city. But among engineers and experts, that resolve is giving way to a growing awareness that another such disaster is inevitable, and nothing short of a massive and endless national commitment can prevent it. Located in one of the lowest spots in the United States, the Big Easy is already as much as 17 feet (five meters) below sea level in places… Even before it was covered by millions of tons of floodwater, New Orleans had sunk well below sea level, because of the draining and compacting of the backswamp and the pumping of groundwater. According to the latest satellite measurements, the city continues to sink at around two-tenths of an inch (0.5 centimeters) each year… A meter of sea level rise would be enough to turn New Orleans into the new Big Easy Reef – or a new Amsterdam, behind massive dikes. That’s assuming that big hurricanes don’t come more often; chances are they will. Hurricane frequency in the Atlantic waxes and wanes over a decades-long cycle that is now on the upswing. For this year, hurricane forecasters are predicting seven to ten hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, with up to five reaching Category 3 or above… The frequency of truly monster storms – Categories 4 and 5 – has doubled since 1970… These trends have persuaded some researchers that the natural cycle is not the only factor driving up hurricane activity. Global warming is boosting sea-surface temperatures in hurricane alley – the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean – and warm seas are rocket fuel for stronger hurricanes. Before Katrina made landfall, it had exploded from a Category 3 storm to a Category 5 in 12 hours, partly because it stirred up a deep pocket of warm water in the Gulf.”

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